Tim Tebow and Moneyball

In the book (and later movie) Moneyball, Michael Lewis chronicles the Oakland A's and their “non-traditional” approach to players and positions. The A's were able to create a high level of competitiveness with a lower personnel budget than most teams in Major League Baseball.

Their now-famous method of looking at player stats, rather than traditional scouting methods paid off for a time.

However, the method did not receive immediate acceptance, especially among those who considered themselves experts in the game and its players. Oakland General Manager Billy Beene ran into resistance at every turn.

The players Beene wanted did not match the accepted body style, fielding ability, etc. of Major League Baseball. However, the proof was in the stats and attributes he desired — and it eventually worked.

I find myself applying the same logic with New York Jets backup quarterback Tim Tebow.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have been a personal fan of Tebow since his days at the University of Florida.

That being said, I wanted to delve into some of Tebow's stats, both in college and the pros to see if Moneyball logic might apply. We all know he isn't what you would consider the “typical” NFL quarterback.

Here are a few stats that you might find interesting. (Thank you Wikipedia)

In college, Tim Tebow help lead the University of Florida to two BCS Championships (2007, 2009) wins, and two SEC Championships (2006, 2008). He was also the first Sophomore in history to win the Heisman Trophy.

In 2007, Tebow finished the regular season with the second highest passing efficiency in the nation with 177.8. Additionally, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.

Over his entire college career, Tebow has a quarterback rating for 170.8, he had a completion percentage of 67.1 and rushed for nearly 3,000 yards. More importantly, Florida football amassed a 48-7 record during his 4-year tenure.

But that's not the NFL is it?

Here are few stats from his time in Denver:

In 2010, Tebow started 3 games after Kyle Orton was hurt, and Head Coach Josh McDaniels was fired. He was 1-2, with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The limited body of work he had in 2010 did not go unnoticed, though.

Tebow's first career victory came in his second start on December 26. The Broncos defeated the Houston Texans, 24–23, in Denver. Tebow helped rally the Broncos from a 17–0 deficit at halftime, as he finished the game with 308 passing yards and one touchdown pass. He also added a fourth quarter rushing touchdown, which capped the comeback. Tebow received his second Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week honor following his performance.

Tebow also became the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for a touchdown in each of his first three career starts.

Tebow was once again relegated to backup status in Denver under new head coach John Fox. Due to a NFL lockout at the time, training camp was abbreviated.

After a 1-4 start, Tebow got the nod to take the reins over the offense. The rest, they say, is NFL legend.

During his run as starter, Tebow was 7-4 and the Broncos climbed from the bottom of the division to win the AFC West, albeit a weakened division with a little help from rival teams.

On Jan. 8, Tebow and the Broncos shocked the NFL world by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-23 in overtime. Tebow threw for a career high 316 yards and two touchdowns, including an 80 yard TD to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime. He completed 10 of 21 passes in the contest, setting the franchise record for quarterback rating in a playoff game (125.6.)

The Broncos would exit the playoffs the following week thanks to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

As a starter in the NFL, Tebow is 9-7. Ugly or not, there are many teams who would take a 9-7 season as they rebuild. Considering this record was amassed under two different coaches and a limited playbook (Tebow packages were not intended to be full-time schemes) there is no denying he has seen success in the NFL.

There are a host of Tebow-related stats that would attest to his ability to make those around him better. Denver's defense, running game and kicking game all flourished during his tenure as starter.

Now we are looking at the 2-3 New York Jets. Once again Tebow is in a backup role, among other things.

With starting quarterback Mark Sanchez struggling as of late, the “Tebow talk” is once again in full swing.

There are those that are clamoring for Tebow to be “unleashed,” while others are certain he will fail as a NFL starter.

Personally, I take my hat off to Tebow for accepting the role given to him and always working to better his team — whatever team it is.

To the naysayers, I point to the stats and Moneyball. Maybe there are exceptions to the “NFL Quarterback Model.”

It would be nice to see Tebow as a starter in the NFL from training camp through the end of the season. Only then could we accurately assess his body of work.

Based on history, I believe he would surprise us all.

When should he start? There's really no time like the present. It couldn't get much worse for the Jets.

Until Next Time...